With the increasing subsidy threshold, soft-packed lithium-ion power can help battery companies to enhance energy density and product competitiveness. In the future, soft-pack technology will occupy a place in the incremental market.
As a means of lightweight and high-energy batteries, soft packaging will occupy an incremental market in a relatively high proportion in the short term. In the long run, all-solid-state batteries also need to rely on the common technology of soft-packed lithium power production.
The new policy of new energy vehicles releases signals to improve battery performance and increase energy density. With the increasing subsidy threshold, soft-packed lithium-ion power can help battery companies to enhance energy density and product competitiveness. In the future, soft-pack technology will occupy a place in the incremental market.
Through industry research and expert visits, people concerned believe that the future development of power soft-packed lithium-ion power industry will present the following main trends and characteristics:
First, the demand for power batteries is growing rapidly, and the permeability of domestic soft packs will continue to increase.
In 2018, China shipped 102 GWh lithium batteries, up 25% year on year. Among them, soft-packed lithium-ion power shipments in 2018 were 39GWh, an increase of 39% year on year. In the field of 3C, the permeability of soft packages has exceeded 65%, and this index is growing further.
In the field of power batteries, the permeability of soft packs is about 13%, which has not yet become the mainstream route. However, in recent years, under the trend of policy encouraging high energy density, the permeability is rapidly increasing. It is estimated that the market size of soft-packed lithium-ion power in China will reach 124GWh by 2022, with an average annual composite growth rate of about 35%, and the penetration rate of power batteries is expected to reach 40%.
Second, the domestic power soft-bag leader is still undetermined, which is expected to give birth to the next "Ningde era".
Power soft package technology route, overseas manufacturers started early, the global market is mainly controlled by LGC, AESC, two supporting mainstream car companies in the top ten models of global sales, in addition to SK has more technical reserves.
The domestic power soft package technology route started late. At present, the main enterprises include Funeng Science and Technology, Tianjin Jiewei, National Energy Battery, Carnegie, Thornton and so on. Many traditional hard-shell battery factories are positively deployed.
In recent years, although the domestic power soft-pack battery manufacturers have developed rapidly, they still lag behind the overseas manufacturers due to the lag of the upstream and downstream of the domestic industrial chain. In the future, with the continuous optimization of battery technology and production technology of domestic power soft package manufacturers, the improvement of process matching and automation of key equipment in the middle and rear parts of China, the mass production of domestic high-quality aluminium-plastic film and related basic materials, China's power soft package manufacturers can seize more market share in the global competition, thus leading enterprises in the field of real subdivision emerge, and solid. The Ningde Age in the field of power soft pack is born by overtaking the bend of the traditional hard-shell power battery factory.
3. The key materials of soft package will grow rapidly, leading enterprises will emerge in aluminium-plastic film industry.
Aluminum-plastic film is a unique core material for soft-packed lithium power, with high technical barriers. At present, the bottleneck of localization is obvious, and it still relies on imports for a long time. With the rapid development of soft-packed lithium power industry, it is estimated that the annual composite growth rate of demand for aluminium-plastic film in China will be 21.0% from 2018 to 2022, and the demand for aluminium-plastic film will reach 340 million square meters in 2022.
At present, the aluminium-plastic film market is still in an obvious oligopoly state. Japan's three global aluminium-plastic film markets, DNP, Zhaotai Electrical Engineering and T&T, account for nearly 90%. Although some Chinese companies have completed a lot of technological accumulation and breakthroughs, there is still a big gap between the supply chain recognition and mass purchasing by downstream lithium power plant suppliers.
It is expected that this year and next, the aluminium-plastic film in the field of digital soft-packed lithium power will be rapidly localized, and the process of localization in the field of power batteries will be significantly accelerated. By analogy with the development history of power battery diaphragm industry, new star enterprises in the lithium power industry chain will emerge.
Fourth, the lithium-ion special equipment enterprises with pioneering advantages will take the lead in benefiting from the rapid growth of the industry.
The process and equipment of soft package and hard shell lithium battery are basically the same in stirring, coating and roll pressing in the front section. However, in view of the fact that the packaging material is soft aluminium-plastic film, there are great differences between the process of liquid injection and packaging in the back section of soft package lithium battery and hard shell battery, and more special requirements are put forward for the production equipment in the middle and rear section.
With the increasing permeability of soft-packed lithium power and the continuous landing of new production capacity, the demand for production equipment in the middle and later stages will continue to rise. Manufacturers who master the core technology of soft-packed lithium power equipment in the middle and later stages will take the lead in benefiting from the expansion of production capacity and enjoy the dividend of rapid growth of the industry. It is estimated that the cumulative demand for new professional equipment for soft pack power batteries will be about 13.5 billion yuan from 2018 to 2022, with an average annual compound growth rate of 40%.